Neck-to-neck fight likely between NDA and BPF in Kokrajhar LS seat

Syllad | The Rising MeghalayaApril 30, 2024

The electoral fight for 1-Kokrajhar Lok Sabha constituency is likely to be a near-straight fight between Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) and National Democratic Alliance (NDA), election for which is scheduled on May 7. 

Altogether 12 candidates, including 2 females are in the fray in the constituency. They are: 

Joyanta Basumatary (NDA), Kampa Borgoyari (BPF), Garjan  Mashahary (Indian National Congress), Gauri Sankar Sarania (All India Trinamool Congress), Binita Deka (GSP), Lalita Pegu (VPI), Ranjay Kr Brahma, Prithviraj Narayan Deb Mech (Ind), Jyotish Kr Das (Ind), Ajoy Narzary (Ind), Triptina Rabha (Ind) and Pankaj Islary (Ind).

Kokrajhar, being the hub of the Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR)  has been reserved as an ST seat for a long time since independence. However, after the 2012 volatile Bodo-Muslim clash, emotional non-Bodo voters preferred to vote for independent candidate Naba Kumar Sarania. 

In 2014 and 2019, Sarania was elected to the Lok Sabha from this constituency by defeating BPF candidates by a huge margin of votes due to the support from the emotional non-Boro voters despite the wave of Narendra Modi.

But this time, the candidature of Naba Kumar Sarania was rejected as his ST certificate was not found valid. Sarania has nominated Binita Deka as an alternative candidate, who has failed to draw the attention of the voters.

It is alleged that Naba Kumar Sarania has been inactive for the past five years and he has not done anything for the constituency in his second term.

Naba Kumar Sarania had garnered support from the emotional non-Bodo voters in 2014 and 2019. However, after the signing of the BTR Accord on January 27, 2020, this situation is no more in the BTR.

It is believed that all sections of people are enjoying equal rights in the BTR for which Naba Kumar Saraania and his GSP are irrelevant in this election.

“The polarization of votes between Bodos and non-Bodos was a thing of the past. But the development is the main agenda in this election,” said Abdul Maleque, a small trader from Sidli area.

Political analysts say Sarania’s Gana Suraksha Party (GSP) may come to an end this time. 

In the 2014 election, Sarania secured 6,34,428 votes while in 2019 he received 4,84,560 votes. There was a sharp decrease of more than 2 lakh votes in 2019 compared to 2014. 

Another major opposition, Congress has fielded Garjan Mashahary from this seat. But the Congress party is yet to kick off its election campaign in the constituency.

“Even as there is an undercurrent, the congress has failed to utilise it and convert to vote,” said Dinen Narzary, a small trader from Gossaingaon town.

There are a total of 14.70 lakh voters in this constituency. Of them, 5.13 lakh Bodo voters, 3.21 lakh religious minorities, 1.51 lakh Koch Rajbongshis, 1.44 lakh linguistic minorities and 1.19 lakh Adivasi voters.

It is noticed in the previous elections that non-Bodo voters are the determining factor in the election in this constituency. Koch Rajbongshis and Adivasis are demanding Scheduled Tribe (ST) status. Even as the BJP had promised to accord them ST status, they could not keep their word.

After BTR was announced as a Sixth Schedule area in 2005, many people, including linguistic minorities and Gorkhas have lost their land rights. The land which was in the name of their forefathers can’t be transferred to their children for which non-Bodo communities have grievances against the BTR administration.

There are eviction drives in many places due to which religious minorities are also not comfortable with NDA candidates.

Even as BJP national president JP Nadda, Union home minister Amit Shaah and chief minister Huimanta Biswa Sarma are working with new strategies to woo the voters, the voters are doubtful of their attitude, especially the poor performance of BTR chief Pramod Bodo in the last years.

“Pramod Bodo is running a commissionraj, He has failed to bring development to the region,” said a BPF leader.

“We are confident that we will enjoy the support of all religious minorities and linguistic minorities in this election. Our candidate Kampa Borgoyari was also deputy chief of BTC. All sections of people are supporting him,” he further said

BPF president and former BTC chief Hagrama Mohillary is seen active against politics this time and putting all his efforts into retaining the seat.

“Hagrama Mohillary is an influential leader. All sections of people, especially religious minorities like him. We think we will get support from all the communities,” he added.

There are a handful of Christian community people who will vote for righteous candidates in the election.

The BJP-AGP-UPPL combine has done much to win the seat. For the past six months, the BJP has been busy strengthening the booth-level and block-level committees to win the election.

The NDA which once claimed that they did not want Muslim vote now are seen as promising in the religious minority areas construction of mosques, Idgahs to win the hearts of Muslims. 

Definitely, Bodo voters will be divided and the party that wins the hearts of non-Bodos will win the elections this time.